Namibia could become a multi-project oil province within the next two years, with TotalEnergies targeting a final investment decision on its Venus project in 2026, Rhino Resources aiming to follow with its PEL 85 development by 2027, and onshore player ReconAfrica signalling a potential FID over the same period.
TotalEnergies is expected to move first, with its Venus discovery in Petroleum Exploration Licence 56 targeting a final investment decision in the fourth quarter of 2026 as work continues on the field development plan and environmental approvals.
The Venus project is being designed to produce about 150,000 barrels per day. It is widely seen as the anchor development that could deliver Namibia’s first oil before the end of the decade.
A second offshore development front is emerging around Rhino Resources and its partners in PEL 85, including Azule Energy, NAMCOR and Korres, with the group now targeting a final investment decision toward the end of 2027.
Earlier positioning placed Rhino’s FID window between late 2026 and early 2027, reflecting the project’s pace of advancement through appraisal and development planning.
A third potential FID could come from onshore player ReconAfrica, where chief executive Brian Reinsborough said timelines could move quickly if production testing is successful.
“We could very well be at FID this time next year and FID on shore to first production is short,” he said.
The alignment of these timelines signals a broader transition in Namibia’s oil and gas sector.
Final investment decision is the point at which operators commit full capital to develop a field, moving projects beyond appraisal into construction and production.
Once sanctioned, developments typically trigger multi-year spending on subsea infrastructure, drilling campaigns, floating production, storage, and offloading vessels, pipelines, and logistics bases.
TotalEnergies’ Venus discovery remains the most advanced of Namibia’s offshore finds and is widely expected to define the country’s first production hub.
The project has undergone multiple design revisions to manage costs and technical complexity, with the company targeting a development that remains competitive across varying oil price scenarios.
If sanctioned in late 2026, Venus would position TotalEnergies as Namibia’s first offshore producer and establish the benchmark for subsequent developments.
The PEL 85 block has emerged as the second major offshore development corridor, with Rhino Resources and its partners advancing appraisal and planning activities.
The project has gained momentum through successive discoveries and is increasingly seen as a follow-on development to Venus, potentially expanding Namibia beyond a single-project outlook.
Onshore developments could move more quickly than offshore projects due to lower costs and simpler infrastructure requirements.
Reinsborough said the economics of onshore drilling are significantly more attractive.
“We’re testing large prospects a half a billion barrel sized prospects for 12 million dollars deep water you’re doing the same thing for 120 million dollars so the economics are really attractive,” he said.
He said production timelines could be significantly shorter if results are positive.
“We could very well be at FID this time next year and FID on shore to first production is short,” he said.
As Namibia moves closer to sanctioning its first projects, the industry’s focus has shifted from exploration success to execution.
David Labbe said early coordination across stakeholders is essential to avoid costly delays.
“Early engagement with the various parts here whether it’s the government whether it’s the IOCs whether it’s the partners is something that enables us to really map the risks associated with that define a plan that actually is executable,” he said.
He warned that disruptions can significantly affect project timelines.
“Anything that can disturb that particular campaign may translate not into a week or a month but a year delay,” he said.
While capital expenditure figures for Namibia’s offshore developments have not been publicly disclosed, both Venus and PEL 85 are large-scale deepwater projects expected to require multi-billion-dollar investment.
What has been disclosed is the potential fiscal impact.
Environmental and social impact assessments for Venus indicate that government revenues could range between N$127 billion and N$229 billion over 25 years, depending on oil prices.
Industry timelines suggest Namibia could achieve first oil by around 2030, with the sequencing of final investment decisions likely to determine which project leads.
If TotalEnergies sanctions Venus in 2026 and Rhino follows with PEL 85 in 2027, Namibia would move from a single-project outlook to a multi-project producing basin.
Final investment decisions represent more than corporate milestones. They mark the point at which years of exploration success begin to translate into infrastructure, jobs, revenue and long-term economic activity.
