The story of Namibia’s first potential oil field is unfolding step by step, and all eyes are on the Venus discovery in the Orange Basin.
Discovered by TotalEnergies in early 2022, Venus has been described as one of the most significant offshore finds ever made in Africa.
Independent assessments suggest that the reservoir could contain billions of barrels of oil, although the final recoverable volumes will depend on engineering design and development choices.
The discovery placed Namibia firmly on the global energy map, drawing comparisons with Guyana and Suriname, where recent frontier finds have reshaped national economies.
In Paris earlier this year, Namibia’s Petroleum Commissioner Maggy Shino placed the first marker on the calendar. She told delegates that she expects TotalEnergies to take a final investment decision on the Venus discovery by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026.
Before then, she added, the company is scheduled to submit its first oilfield development plan for approval in June or July 2025. These regulatory milestones are designed to align Namibia’s institutions with the pace of development that the company and its partners are pursuing.
Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne has made it clear that Venus will only move forward if the economics hold. “A FID hinges on keeping production costs below US $20 per barrel,” he said.
The breakeven figure reflects the extraordinary challenges of operating in ultra-deepwater conditions more than 3,000 metres below the surface.
At such depths, drilling costs escalate rapidly, subsea equipment requires highly specialised technology, and the logistics of transporting people, materials, and hydrocarbons 300 kilometres offshore add layers of expense.
To keep the project viable, TotalEnergies is negotiating with the Namibian government to ensure that the overall financial framework—encompassing taxes, royalties, state participation, and potential incentives—does not render the development prohibitively expensive.
These discussions centre on what the company and officials describe as “cost-sharing mechanisms.”
In practice, this can mean several things. Adjustments to royalty rates or even tax holidays could be offered in the early years of production, when capital costs are highest. The government might contribute to shared infrastructure such as ports, roads, or power supply that would benefit both the project and the broader economy. Agreements could be made on how exploration and appraisal costs are treated for tax purposes, giving the operator more room in its cash flows.
Finally, the state oil company NAMCOR’s equity stake might be structured in a way that avoids overburdening the operator during the most capital-intensive stages of development.
Projected output has already been adjusted in line with this drive for efficiency. In February 2025, TotalEnergies revised its expected production to 150,000 barrels per day, a slight decrease from the previously announced 160,000 barrels per day. While modest, the recalibration reflects both reservoir modelling and the need to design a project resilient enough to withstand fluctuations in global oil prices once production begins.
The emphasis on costs also shapes the broader development strategy. By focusing on oil volumes with clear commercial pathways and deferring gas monetisation through reinjection, TotalEnergies is working toward a project design that meets its strict economic parameters and can progress to a final investment decision in 2026.
Venus holds both oil and gas, but not everything is destined for the market. Mike Sangster, the company’s Senior Vice President for Africa, explained the challenge. “In the case of Namibia, the gas is very remote… under 3,000 metres of water, which is a world record, and 300 kilometres from the coastline. To monetize the gas is super complex.”
The technical hurdles are considerable. Exporting gas from a site this far offshore would require building new subsea pipelines across ultra-deepwater terrain, as well as onshore liquefaction plants and other infrastructure, which could cost billions of dollars. Additionally, the Namibian market for natural gas remains small, lacking established domestic pipelines or LNG facilities that can absorb such volumes.
Given these constraints, TotalEnergies and its partners have opted for a more immediate solution. The gas will be reinjected into the reservoir. This approach not only maintains pressure within the oil-bearing formations, helping to boost recovery rates, but also allows the development plan to concentrate on the crude oil volumes that can be brought to market more efficiently.
By taking this decision, the consortium avoids the long lead times and heavy capital outlays associated with gas monetisation projects.
It also reduces the environmental and social complexities associated with new coastal processing plants and pipelines. Instead, the Venus development strategy has been streamlined to focus squarely on oil production, ensuring that the project can meet its targeted timelines for a final investment decision and the eventual production of first oil.
The path has not been smooth. An appraisal well known as Marula-1X returned disappointing results, failing to extend the core of the Venus reservoir. Even so, the partners have tightened their focus on the main discovery, which remains substantial.
In a May 8, 2025, press release, Victoria Sibeya, the former acting managing director of the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR), said:
“Our focus remains firmly on the commercial potential of the Venus field. The accelerated development of this project is a clear signal of our commitment to Namibia’s energy future.”
That acceleration is already visible. In April 2025, TotalEnergies and its partners launched a comprehensive Environmental and Social Impact Assessment, conducting consultations in the Erongo and //Karas regions.
TotalEnergies operates the Venus project with a 40% interest. Its partners include QatarEnergy, which holds 30%, Impact Oil & Gas, with 20%, and Namibia’s state-owned company NAMCOR, with 10%. The consortium represents a blend of international supermajors, sovereign energy capital, and domestic state ownership. Together, they form the team responsible for moving Venus from discovery into development, with each partner bringing a different financial, technical, and strategic strength to the table.
While paperwork advances on land, construction plans are taking shape offshore. TotalEnergies has committed approximately N$45 billion, equivalent to roughly US$2.5 billion, to subsea works for Venus. The design calls for a network of ultra-deepwater wells connected to a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel capable of handling 150,000 barrels per day. At water depths of more than 3,000 metres and 300 kilometres from shore, Venus would rank among the deepest oilfield developments attempted worldwide.
If the development plan is filed in 2025 and the final investment decision is made in 2026, first oil is projected to occur between 2029 and 2030.
