Namibia’s Orange Basin discoveries will not automatically become producing oilfields, and the country must earn investment through predictable regulation, commercial terms and capable institutions, industries, mines and energy minister Modestus Amutse has warned.
Speaking at the Offshore Northern Seas programme in Stavanger, Norway, on Wednesday, Amutse said the discoveries that have placed Namibia among the world’s emerging petroleum provinces remain capital-intensive deep-water projects competing against opportunities elsewhere for development funding.
“The discoveries have given us an opportunity, not an entitlement. Investability must still be earned through competence, consistency and trust,” he said.
Amutse said exploration successes beginning with Graff and Venus in 2022, followed by Jonker, Mopane and subsequent discoveries, had confirmed a working petroleum system and placed Namibia on the global deep-water map.
The basin has since moved beyond geological promise, with discoveries and prospects progressing through exploration, appraisal and development planning at different speeds.
TotalEnergies and its partners have defined a development concept for the Venus discovery centred on a floating production system capable of producing approximately 160 000 barrels of oil per day and are working towards a potential final investment decision.
Galp and TotalEnergies have also outlined further exploration and appraisal work around the Mopane discoveries, while recent drilling results in Rhino Resources-operated Petroleum Exploration Licence 85 have added to available geological information about the basin.
Amutse, however, cautioned that the growing number of discoveries should not be interpreted as a guarantee that every prospect would succeed or reach commercial production.
“Not every well will succeed, and not every discovery will become a producing field. These are capital-intensive projects in deep and ultra-deep water, competing globally for investment,” he said.
The minister said Namibia must focus on ensuring that petroleum risks are understood, distributed, and priced appropriately because international capital will flow to projects offering commercially acceptable returns and predictable operating conditions.
“Discovery is a geological event; investability is an institutional achievement,” Amutse said. “Geology belongs to nature; predictability belongs to us.”
He identified political and legal stability, capable institutions, commercial realism and shared national value as the four foundations of Namibia’s attempt to turn the discoveries into investable projects.
Namibia’s constitutional system, investment protection, and the allowance for profit repatriation form part of its offer to international investors, while the establishment of the Upstream Petroleum Unit in the Presidency is intended to strengthen coordination as projects move closer to development.
The government is also modernising the petroleum legal framework, although Amutse said reforms must maintain transparency and accountability while providing investors with sufficient certainty.
“Government cannot command geology to become commercial or ask capital to ignore economics. Our framework must protect the national interest while allowing responsible investors to earn a competitive return,” he said.
The recently approved National Upstream Petroleum Local Content Policy would be used to increase employment, procurement, enterprise development, skills transfer and Namibian participation in the industry.
Amutse acknowledged that Namibia would not immediately be able to supply every product or service required by a deep-water petroleum industry. Local participation should instead increase as the sector develops, supported by investment in skills and institutions before oil production begins.
“Namibia will not localise every component from the first day, and it should not pretend that it can. But local participation must deepen as the industry matures, and early investment in people and institutions must begin before first production — not after it,” he said.
Infrastructure and services required to support development include ports, marine logistics, engineering, environmental science, research and training, and reliable electricity, water and transport networks.
The government expects petroleum projects to create economic value extending beyond taxes and royalties by supporting Namibian businesses, employment, infrastructure and public services.
“The investor must see a competitive project. Namibia must see opportunity beyond taxes and royalties. And the Namibian child must ultimately see a difference in education, infrastructure, energy access and economic possibility,” Amutse said.
He rejected the view that petroleum development and the energy transition must necessarily compete, arguing that Namibia still needs to expand electricity access, develop industries and increase the productive capacity of its economy.
Revenue and economic activity generated by the Orange Basin could, if managed transparently, help finance infrastructure, education, renewable energy, green industries and critical-mineral value chains.
Amutse also challenged the practice of treating African energy investments as a single high-risk category without considering the institutions, commercial conditions and project fundamentals of individual countries.
Namibia offers a stable Atlantic location, experienced international operators and an increasingly understood petroleum basin, but the minister said the country intended to learn from Norway and other established petroleum producers rather than attempt to develop its governance system without drawing on their experience.
“Ultimately, the Orange Basin will not be judged only by the number of barrels produced. It will be judged by whether it strengthens energy security, builds Namibian capability, creates competitive businesses and leaves the country more resilient than it found it,” he said.
