Namibia must embed its oil and gas ambitions into enforceable legal and institutional frameworks or risk losing long-term economic value, Presidential advisor Carlo McLeod has warned.
Speaking at the Namibia International Energy Conference, McLeod said the country’s upstream petroleum growth must be deliberately aligned with national development goals, cautioning that policy intent alone would not guarantee meaningful outcomes.
“This alignment cannot be left to goodwill. It must be architecture codified in law and enforced through regulation, and monitored through transparent oversight,” he said.
His remarks come as Namibia moves closer to a final investment decision phase on major offshore discoveries, placing the country at a critical juncture where governance choices could shape its economic trajectory for decades.
McLeod said the focus should not be limited to production, but on how oil revenues are managed and deployed.
“The objective is not simply to produce oil. It is to use oil as a strategic lever to diversify the economy, strengthen institutions and cultivate resilience that extends well beyond peak production,” he said.
He pointed to the need for petroleum revenue management laws, sovereign wealth fund structures, and targeted investment mandates to ensure that oil proceeds flow into key sectors such as agriculture, education, health, and infrastructure.
A central theme of his address was local content, where he said Namibia has a rare opportunity to get it right from the outset of its upstream cycle.
Unlike mature oil-producing countries that attempted to retrofit local participation into already established industries, Namibia can design a system that integrates domestic businesses across the value chain from the beginning.
However, he cautioned against limiting local participation to low-value services.
“Moving beyond cleaning, catering and transportation… and deliberately expanding the scope and sophistication of local participation over time” would be essential, he said, adding that the country needs a regulatory framework “with teeth” and procurement systems that create genuine opportunities for Namibian firms.
McLeod also highlighted skills development as a critical pillar, warning that without deliberate investment, Namibia could remain dependent on imported expertise despite hosting the resources.
“If we are not proactive and strategic, we risk continuing to import the expertise required by our own resources and exporting economic returns that should remain onshore,” he said.
He called for alignment between industry needs and educational institutions, including universities and vocational training centres, alongside structured internship and mentorship programmes to build a local talent pipeline.
Technology transfer, he added, should not be treated as optional in negotiations but embedded as a core obligation in petroleum agreements and monitored through regulatory mechanisms.
Beyond skills and local content, McLeod stressed the importance of structuring partnerships that deliver real value to Namibia.
“A genuine partnership is one in which knowledge flows bi-directionally, risk and reward are shared equitably and the local partner emerges with enhanced capacity,” he said.
He warned that transactional arrangements, where international companies extract value while local firms provide limited services, would fail to deliver meaningful development outcomes.
The final element of his framework focused on creating an enabling environment, which he described as the foundation for all other policy ambitions.
“Policy ambition without an enabling environment is aspiration without execution,” he said, stressing the need for regulatory certainty, contract stability and efficient dispute resolution to attract long-term investment.
At the same time, he said local enterprises require access to affordable finance, streamlined regulatory processes and improved infrastructure to participate effectively in the sector.
McLeod also acknowledged the risks associated with oil development, including the potential for Dutch disease, governance failures and uncertainty linked to the global energy transition.
However, he said these risks should be managed through deliberate policy design rather than used as a reason for hesitation.
“Risk is not a reason for inaction. It is a reason for diligence,” he said.
He concluded by emphasising that Namibia’s success would depend on consistent policy enforcement and institutional discipline rather than strategy alone.
“The test will come when a procurement decision favours a less competitive local company over an established international supplier — and the government holds that line,” he said.
With major offshore developments moving toward investment decisions, McLeod said the choices made now would determine whether Namibia’s oil wealth becomes a foundation for inclusive growth or a missed opportunity.
