Shell’s modern Namibian journey began in December 2021, when the company spudded the Graff-1 exploration well in Block 2913A under Petroleum Exploration Licence 39.
Located roughly 270 kilometres offshore Oranjemund in 1,962 metres of water, the well was drilled by the Valaris DS-10 drillship and targeted Lower Cretaceous sandstones.
When light oil was confirmed in February 2022, Namibia crossed a defining threshold—from geological speculation to a proven deep-water petroleum province.
The Graff discovery was the culmination of decades of regional theory suggesting that the Orange Basin, stretching from northern South Africa into southern Namibia, contained a working hydrocarbon system. Shell’s success triggered an exploration rush that redrew the Atlantic energy map. “Graff proved that Namibia’s deep water works,” Namcor’s managing director said later that year, calling the find “a milestone for the country’s energy future.”
Encouraged by Graff, Shell drilled the Jonker-1X well in December 2022, reaching a total depth of approximately 6,168 metres in 2,210 metres of water. In March 2023, Shell and Namcor jointly announced a second light-oil discovery, confirming a continuous petroleum system across the southern Orange Basin. Energy Voice reported that the result “cemented Namibia’s place on the world’s exploration map,” while World Oil described it as a validation of the basin’s untapped potential.
During 2023, Shell extended its appraisal campaign with two more wells, La Rona-1X and Lesedi-1X, both drilled within the identical Cretaceous sequences. Namcor said the wells encountered hydrocarbons in multiple intervals, indicating that “several productive traps” were present within the block. By mid-year, Shell had completed four consecutive wells—Graff, Jonker, La Rona, and Lesedi—establishing itself as one of Namibia’s leading offshore oil and gas operators.
Yet the appraisal results also revealed complexity. Subsurface studies showed zones of tighter formations, variable permeability, and structural compartmentalisation that could challenge large-scale flow. Independent consultancies Wood Mackenzie and Energy Intelligence noted that while Shell had clearly proven oil, the reservoir architecture appeared heterogeneous, requiring more work to determine whether commercial development was feasible at deep-water cost.
In January 2025, Shell announced a US$400 million impairment on its Namibian assets. The company said the charge reflected “current assessments of commercial viability” rather than any intention to withdraw.
Reuters reported that Shell’s write-down stemmed from the cost of deep-water appraisal and the uncertainty around flow performance, quoting industry analysts who viewed the move as a “technical reset” rather than a retreat.
According to Upstream Online, Shell’s internal review concluded that further data were needed to refine the geological model.
The company paused field operations through 2025 to integrate new seismic interpretation, pressure data, and reservoir modelling. Namcor confirmed that the partners were reassessing sound placement and development design, with a focus on identifying more continuous, higher-quality sand bodies deeper in the section.
Shell has now confirmed plans to return to the Orange Basin in 2026 with a new five-well drilling campaign under PEL 39.
World Oil reported that the programme will test deeper structural leads around the Graff, Jonker, and La Rona discoveries and evaluate new prospects mapped by reprocessed three-dimensional seismic.
The company expects the fresh phase of drilling to guide any eventual field development decision.
Although Shell has not disclosed specific investment figures, analysts estimate that ultra-deep-water wells in the Orange Basin typically cost between US $70 million and US $120 million each, depending on depth, location, and drilling duration.
Based on its impairment filing, the cumulative expenditure for the Graff, Jonker, Lesedi, and La Rona wells is likely to fall within that range.
Throughout the process, the partnership structure has remained constant.
Shell serves as the operator, holding a 45 per cent interest, alongside QatarEnergy with a 45 per cent interest and Namcor with a 10 per cent interest. Namcor has emphasised that the collaboration ensures local participation in every technical and commercial phase of the work.
In Namibia’s exploration narrative, PEL 39 has become the basin’s reference point. The Graff-1 well proved the system, Jonker-1X confirmed its scale, and the 2025 impairment tested corporate resolve. Now, the 2026 drilling campaign marks the next step—a technical and financial recommitment aimed at transforming geological discovery into a commercial reality.
As Energy Voice observed, “Shell’s story in Namibia is less about a single well than about patience, data and the discipline to stay the course.” Whether that discipline leads to development or more profound discovery, the Orange Basin remains the stage on which Namibia’s offshore future is being written.
