Optimism met caution as world leaders, policymakers and project developers dissected the future of green hydrogen on African soil at the Global African Hydrogen Summit in Windhoek.
While Namibia has emerged as one of the continent’s flagbearers, the panel of experts warned that without bold policy action, long-term demand guarantees, and domestic market development, Africa’s green hydrogen boom could remain stranded in glossy brochures.
Germany’s Special Envoy for International Hydrogen Projects at the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs, Dr. Jürgen Friedrich, opened with a candid assessment.
“My job is to get hydrogen projects done. The business of government is manufacturing opportunities. Our task is to create frameworks that allow the private sector to do the right thing,” he told the audience.
Friedrich said Germany’s position is unavoidable.
“We will not produce enough hydrogen at home to decarbonise our industries. We must import. That is why Namibia and Southern Africa are so important.”
Yet he flagged financing costs and offtake risks as the most significant obstacles.
“Financing African projects should not be more costly than in other markets. We need reliable frameworks for demand creation, joint industrialisation strategies, and robust offtake mechanisms. Partnerships are essential.”
He pointed to the HyIron pilot project in Arandis, which produces 15,000 tonnes of green iron annually, as proof of concept.
“With the right support, Namibia can demonstrate that green industrialisation is not just theory but practice,” Friedrich added.
Namibia’s most ambitious hydrogen project is Hyphen Hydrogen Energy, represented by CEO Marco Raffinetti. His company won the government’s tender to develop a multi-billion-dollar project in the //Kharas Region, one of Namibia’s designated hydrogen valleys.
“There’s a lot of focus on us,” Raffinetti said. “It’s a huge project and government has large aspirations for the socioeconomic benefits it can bring. But to unlock this, we must close the gap between how consumers and financiers operate.”
He explained the dilemma: “Green ammonia buyers are used to three- to five-year contracts. Lenders want 15 to 20 years. That mismatch is fatal for bankability. Ultimately, this industry is about establishing long-term trade relationships between producer countries like Namibia and consumer countries in Europe and Asia. Without certainty, projects will not move from paper to reality.”
He also stressed the scalability of Namibia’s resources. “Our project can unlock 20 times the scale of our first phase. But to bring costs down, we need experience and execution — the same learning curves that transformed solar, wind, and batteries. Policy certainty is critical.”
If Raffinetti spoke of structures and finance, Paddy Padmanathan, co-founder and vice chair of Zero and a veteran of Saudi Arabia’s US$8.2 billion NEOM hydrogen project, turned to imagery.
“We are all like animals at the river during migration,” he told the hall. “We see the food on the other side, but we are waiting for someone else to jump first. The truth is, those who do, survive and thrive. We need the courage to act now.” Padmanathan drew on his decades of experience in power and water projects to argue that costs are already falling.
“Sixty percent of hydrogen production costs are electricity. Renewable prices are coming down, equipment costs are normalising after COVID, and interest rates will ease. Redo the numbers — you’ll be shocked at how competitive hydrogen is becoming. The time to act is now.”
Charles Dos Santos, managing director of Air Products South Africa, reminded delegates that Namibia cannot build an industry on exports alone.
“You lose your cost advantage the moment you ship hydrogen molecules around the world,” he warned. “The key is to create demand locally — in grid infrastructure, desalination, agriculture, mobility. Build the ecosystem here, then connect to global markets when the time is right.”
He stressed Namibia’s comparative advantage: some of the world’s best solar and wind resources.
“Roll out renewables, strengthen grid infrastructure, and use hydrogen to create green iron and agricultural products locally. That will build resilience and make Namibia a true hub, not just a transit point for exports.”
Sebastian Budachin, senior vice president at German energy company SEFE, explained that Europe’s industries are under enormous strain.
“Steelmakers can cut emissions by moving from coal to gas, but to go directly to green hydrogen is enormously costly. We must move beyond colour labels like ‘green’ or ‘blue’ and look at carbon intensity. Projects that cut CO₂ today are better than projects that wait for perfection.” Budachin argued for smaller integrated projects to show value quickly.
“We have the technology, the developers, the banks, and the governments in this room. Why not commit to one smaller project together, prove it works, and then scale up? Starting is the hardest part.”
From South Africa, Dr. Kenny Tenza, deputy director-general for Technology and Innovation at the Department of Science and Innovation, stressed skills and policy frameworks.
“South Africa has a Hydrogen Society Roadmap, commercialisation strategies, and special economic zone incentives,” he said. “But no policy is enough without people. We are investing heavily in training so Africans can run these industries, not just host them. Skills development is absolutely essential.”
Tenza also highlighted incentives such as R&D tax credits and SEZ tax breaks that cut corporate tax from 27% to 15%.
“Policy, public-private partnerships, skills, and multilateral cooperation — these are the foundations of a just energy transition.”
François van Schalkwyk, emerging markets specialist and strategic advisor at the EU-Africa Business Forum, moderated the panel. He acknowledged the controversy of the session.
“This is one of the most difficult questions of the summit: how do we create demand for green hydrogen? Without answers, Africa’s projects will remain stranded.”
By the end, a consensus had emerged – timing, partnerships, policy certainty, and local value addition are non-negotiable.
The discussion carried weight for Hyphen’s //Kharas megaproject, the Daures Green Hydrogen Village, Cleanergy’s Walvis Bay refuelling station, H₂ Academy, and HyIron’s Arandis plant are already on the map.
But as the panellists made clear, announcements must translate into bankable projects, jobs, and exports.
As Friedrich warned: “The window to lead will not stay open forever.”
