The Green Industrialization blueprint says Namibia’s GDP could grow by US$10 billion and create 250,000 jobs by 2040.
The blueprint also says Namibia could increase its exports by US$20 million and investments by US$55 billion.
In addition, Namibia could decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 75 million tons per year.
The green hydrogen projects can add about US$6 billion to the GDP, while green manufacturing can bring in US$5 billion.
About 185,000 direct jobs can come from the green hydrogen industry, and 70,000 jobs can be direct, indirect, or induced from green manufacturing.
The current US$4.7 billion annual national exports can quintuple to US$12 billion in green hydrogen exports and US$10 billion from new green manufacturing sectors.
A document titled Green Manufacturing Strategy for Namibia identifies 15 industries across four categories to manufacture renewable energy hardware, solar panels, copper cables, electrolysers, and wind turbines as part of its green industrialisation strategy.
In addition, there could be the processing of battery materials, rare earth elements, food, and the production of flat glass, aluminium, PVC, synthetic fuels, green fertilizer, hot briquettes, iron, and ammonia bunkering.
The document identifies four categories covering 15 industries: manufacturing renewable energy hardware, panels, copper cables, electrolysers, and wind turbines.
In addition, there could be the processing of battery materials, rare earth elements, food, and the Production of flat glass, aluminium, PVC, synthetic fuels, green fertilizer, hot briquettes, and ammonia bunkering.
According to the document, feasibility studies and engagements will be done on electrolysers, wind turbines, lithium refining, rare earth elements refining, flat glass production, synthetic fuel production, and hot-briquetted iron production in 2024.
These projects will be set up between 2025 and 2030 when production starts.
Namibia should expect to start and scale up solar panel manufacturing by 2030 after feasibility studies and engagements conducted in 2024.
The green hydrogen blueprint says US$170 million is needed as capital expenditure in solar panel manufacturing by 2050
Solar panel manufacturing will have an annual value-added potential of US$1.8 billion by 2050, which is 15% of the current GDP.
This particular industry could create 22.000 jobs by 2050.
About 1.000 jobs are expected to be created in 2025, 2.500 by 2030, and 12.000 by 2040.
The manufacturing of electrolysers has the potential of bringing in US$1.3 billion, or about 11% of the current GDP, from a US$250 million capital expenditure.
This sector can create up to 28.000 jobs by 2050.
As early as 2025, there could be 1.000 jobs, another 3.000 by 2030, and 13.000 by 2040.
The blueprint says Namibia can manufacture wind turbine towers and blades for the green hydrogen projects.
The sector would require US$250 million in capital expenditure by 2050, bringing in US$675 million to the GDP.
According to the blueprint, domestic green hydrogen production will require ~20 GW of wind energy generation capacity by 2050.
About 27.000 jobs could be created by 2050—2.000 in 2025, 8.000 by 2030, and 20.000 by 2040.
The first plant would manufacture 80-200 towers annually, rising to ~500 towers and blade sets at peak (from 2040).
Namibia is also considering refining lithium for European export, taking advantage of the EU push to diversify its critical mineral supply chain.
The blueprint says the EU’s investment heavily in battery-grade refining capacity creates an opening for Namibia to supply intermediate processed lithium to new EU refineries.
In addition, the EU Critical Raw Materials Act establishes a platform for Namibia to enter into strategic partnerships.
The potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced) is US$250 million value added (2% of current GDP) and up to 8,600 jobs.
About 2.000 jobs could come as early as 2025, 6.000 by 2030, and 7.000 by 2040.
Namibia would need US$675 million in capital expenditure by 2050 to get this sector going.
The blueprint suggests building on mining capabilities and announced REE projects to develop and operate a separate facility in Namibia to add value by producing rare earth oxides.
Namibia has about 50 million tons of local high-grade resource base to feed domestic separation plants.
The country might need joint ventures between domestic producers and international refiners—either Chinese or EU/US—to develop local processing and operational expertise.
The potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced) is US$175 million value added (>1% of current GDP) and up to 4,100 jobs.
Flat glass manufacturing is expected to start before 2030, targeting African & EU markets, then expand into local raw material production such as soda ash and higher-value flat glass derivatives.
Africa is the world’s fastest-growing market for imported flat glass (albeit comparatively small), increasing by 5% annually since 2013 vs. 1% globally.
The domestic market is small but cost-competitive for exports to Africa/Europe (13% cheaper than the current African price; 23% more affordable than the European price).
There are opportunities to establish a production plant and expand upstream via domestic silica and soda ash production.
The potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced) is US$550 million value added (4% of current GDP) and up to 7,100 jobs from a US$1.5 billion capital expenditure by 2050.
Unlike other sectors, flat glass manufacturing will not create jobs in 2025 but 2.000 by 2030 and 5.000 by 2040.
The pilot Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) production could begin as early as 2024 and scale between 2025 and 2030.
Namibia can produce and export green HBI to Europe due to low-cost gH2, which is expected to offset other cost disadvantages.
However, the blueprint says the window of opportunity risks closing if delayed as Europe’s green hydrogen costs decline (partly due to mooted green hydrogen pipelines from the Middle East and North Africa).
The potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced) is US$1.2 billion value added (10% of current GDP) and up to 7,900 jobs.
Another possible sector is where Namibia can use domestic bush biomass to produce biogenic carbon dioxide feedstock and green hydrogen to produce synthetic fuel for export to the EU aviation market.
EU sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates to create a market from 2025 (rising to 40 million tons per annum by 2050).
It is commercially unproven, but significant ongoing research and development shows that it can be used for up to 50% blend with conventional jet fuel.
The EU biofuel market is facing oversupply, but the e-fuel market is expected to see an increasing supply gap, reaching 6 million tons annually by 2050.
The scope is to produce e-SAF from 2030 and export it to EU aviation customers.
A bush biomass plant could supply biogenic carbon dioxide, while low-cost domestic green hydrogen production establishes Namibia’s competitive advantage.
The potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced) is US$1.9 billion value added (>15% of current GDP) and up to 15,500 jobs.
Large-scale operations for all the projects could start between 2040 and 2050.
The document says Namibia has 12 unique minerals: diamonds, uranium, rare earth elements, and lithium. It also says Namibia has environmental advantages, including solar and wind capacity factors.
In addition, the document says Namibia is politically stable and has robust governance systems such as an independent judicial system, protection of property, and contractual rights, offering key advantages for investment.
Besides good physical infrastructure, the document says Namibia has available labour and skills in critical areas.
According to the document, Namibia has developed a hydrogen industry and built crucial know-how and skills within government structures.
“The hydrogen industry can form a base for further opportunities both as a market for inputs—renewable energy hardware—and as a supplier into hydrogen derivatives production such as synthetic fuel and hot briquetted iron,” the document says.
