By Dr Reem El Sherif and Ruusa Nandago
The Just Energy Transition (JET), a concept buzzing in the world’s corridors, is nothing new and was initially coined in the 1980s.
With that, one must ask – why are we hearing more about it now? What does it mean? RMB Namibia unpacked some of these questions at COP28 with senior government and private sector officials from both local and international spheres.
As pressure mounts to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or less, countries, especially developing nations, are tactfully considering the socio-economic implications that an abrupt change to greener and cleaner economies could have while facing the dual pressure of boiling socio-economic risks.
Namibia, for example, is a net sink economy that faces substantial socio-economic challenges arising from the triple challenges of unemployment, inequality, and poverty. These include a high unemployment rate of 33.4%, the second-highest inequality in the world with a Gini coefficient of 59.1, and worrying levels of multidimensional poverty.
According to the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), 43.3% of the Namibian population is multidimensionally poor across various dimensions, including education, sanitation, housing and health.
However, JET provides light at the end of the tunnel for developing countries, such as Namibia, to balance the climate and socio-economic goals. While there are many variations of what JET means, there is consensus that moving to greener and cleaner economies should be fair and inclusive and leave no one behind. Ensuring nobody is left behind can be done directly and indirectly. An example of a direct channel is ensuring that local content for fossil fuel-related activity is well-enforced to stimulate domestic entrepreneurial activity alongside the foreign direct investment that the country will attract.
An indirect way is through the fiscus. Estimates show that if the current estimated volumetrics of oil prove to be commercially viable, fiscal revenue could double. These revenues should be channelled towards the government’s diversification agenda and drive investment into infrastructure, agriculture, real estate and telecoms. For individuals not captured in the direct and indirect benefits, fossil fuel revenues can assist the government in widening the social safety net, especially for unemployed, able-bodied adults who are currently not captured in the social welfare system.
Additionally, a sovereign wealth fund will ensure that the benefits reaped are intergenerational and extend beyond the short and medium term. At the same time, these revenues can fund the transition to a green economy by investing in sectors such as green hydrogen and renewable energy projects.
In this regard, another commonly held debate is whether this transition poses any trade-off. Can Namibia simultaneously achieve both climate and social goals? Or does one come at the cost of another? To understand this, a clear pathway and stakeholder mapping need to be conducted to identify what the transition roadmap looks like, who the stakeholders are affected by, and how they are affected. From there, precise sequencing needs to occur regarding the appropriate actions.
Thinking in the frame of sequencing rather than trade-offs ensures that no one is left behind. Sequencing means tackling challenges individually, depending on the severity of the impact imposed. One cannot let the effects of climate change, which pose a threat on the livelihoods of marginalised groups, linger for long. Additionally, one must consider individuals who are employed in high-emitting sectors. For example, countries can address the immediate effects of droughts and floods, which severely impact current livelihoods.
Then, as a next step, which is one of many solutions, countries can consider re-skilling and up-skilling their workforce while simultaneously mobilising investments to develop green industries. Once the newly skilled labour force is ready and can shift to green industries, countries can then look to identify ways to reduce emissions from carbon-intensive sectors. This is also known as the green structural transformation.
A major enabler in the JET is financing, a hot topic at COP28. One salient point is the need for the financial landscape to evolve beyond traditional finance instruments. At RMB’s event during COP28, the panellists offered some thoughts on how that could happen.
A critical view is that financial resources are not scarce, yet the secret sauce lies in how they are mobilised and distributed globally. With that view, there is a need to mobilise and marry different forms of capital that cater to various risk levels in an individual climate-related or energy project.
This challenges the misconception that only one form of capital is the alpha and omega for JET. The “blending” of different forms of capital is theoretically poised to bring about efficiencies for JET investors. In the spirit of balancing climate and socio-economic goals, innovative financing also allows us to achieve this duality.
The issue of transition reaches beyond transition to transforming African economies. The Nairobi Declaration proposes new financing mechanisms to help African countries unlock funding for transformation and promote sustainable use of resources to help the region contribute toward global decarbonisation. One of the declarations from the Climate Summit in Kenya included a call for developed countries to honour their commitment to provide $100 billion in annual climate finance, as promised 14 years ago at the Copenhagen conference. Furthermore, it included proposals for new debt relief and restructuring interventions and instruments such as extension of sovereign debt tenor and inclusion of a 10-year grace period.
Sustainability-linked bonds, or loans, allow investors to raise financing while committing to certain sustainability KPIs and targets. These KPIs and targets can relate to climate and social goals simultaneously. Another example of achieving duality is the FNB Namibia green bond, where proceeds were allocated to green building development for an affordable housing project.
Many developing countries like Namibia embrace the JET concept to achieve climate and socio-economic goals dually. What is needed is a clear pathway that requires input from not only scientists and government but also from civil society and the private sector—to truly leave no one behind.
Dr Reem El Sherif is the Strategy and Innovations Lead at RMB Namibia. She has a decade of experience in corporate strategy, national strategy, policy and research.
Ruusa Nandago is part of the FirstRand Namibia team, serving as the Group Economist for FNB, RMB, Ashburton, and PointBreak.
