The African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook states that, after decades of being considered underexplored, Africa’s oil and gas provinces are now delivering discoveries that necessitate a new approach.
The report notes that future growth on the continent will hinge less on single, oversized projects and more on a blend of infrastructure, early-stage production and skills transfer.
Namibia’s Orange Basin has become the focal point of exploration in Southern Africa.
TotalEnergies’ Venus discovery, confirmed in 2022 through the Venus-1X well, is supported by a development plan centred on a floating production, storage and offloading vessel with a capacity of about 160,000 barrels per day, tied to roughly 40 subsea wells.
A final investment decision is planned for 2026, with first oil projected between 2029 and 2030.
TotalEnergies has since drilled the Venus-1A appraisal well and the Nara-1X prospect in Block 2912, and is preparing to test the Olympe-1X structure, which lies further west than any well previously drilled in the basin.
Shell has built a parallel position in adjacent licences. After opening up the play with Graff-1X in 2022, it confirmed additional resources through La Rona-1X, Jonker-1X and subsequent appraisal wells, including Lesedi-1X and Cullinan-1X.
These wells have underpinned Shell’s plans for a new campaign of up to five more exploration wells in 2026.
Galp Energia has joined the list of operators to make a commercial find, striking oil at Mopane-1X in 2024 and following it with Mopane-2X, which was successfully flow-tested.
Further appraisal drilling is expected to continue into 2025 to define the scale of the discovery.
Rhino Resources is preparing to drill the Volans-1X prospect in PEL 85, adding to the momentum building along the basin’s northern margin.
Eco Atlantic, meanwhile, holds Namibian licences PELs 97, 98, 99, and 100, where it is working on seismic data and leads, such as Osprey, in the Cooper Block ahead of future drilling.
All of these programmes are backed by Namibia’s national oil company, Namcor, which holds a 10% carried interest across most Orange Basin blocks.
Impact Oil & Gas is also a key partner in both Shell and TotalEnergies’ licenses, holding equity in discoveries such as Venus, Graff, and Jonker.
Together, the wells drilled since 2022 — Venus, Graff, La Rona, Jonker, Lesedi, Cullinan, Nara and Mopane — have established Namibia as the leading deepwater frontier in Africa.
In Angola, ultra-deepwater exploration remains an active sector. Azule Energy, the Eni–BP joint venture, is drilling the Quitexe-1 exploration well in Block 47.
Onshore, the Kwanza Basin is set for its first pre-salt well in more than 40 years, with Corcel planning to drill the Sirius structure in 2026.
The structure is estimated to contain up to one billion barrels of oil in place.
In Côte d’Ivoire, Murphy Oil’s Civette-1 well will be drilled by the Deepwater Skyros in late 2025. The country’s portfolio also includes the Caracal prospect, estimated to contain 150 to 360 million barrels, and the Kobus prospect, which is estimated to hold up to 1.26 billion barrels.
These follow Eni’s Baleine field, which proved the presence of a working petroleum system in Ivorian waters.
In São Tomé and Príncipe, Shell is preparing to drill the Falcao-1 wildcat in Block 10 in late 2025. The programme builds on Galp Energia’s Jaca-1 discovery in 2022, which demonstrated hydrocarbon potential in the archipelago’s deepwater acreage. Additional wells are scheduled between 2026 and 2027 as part of a broader campaign in the Gulf of Guinea.
The African Energy Chamber notes that non-commercial wells provide value by confirming source rocks and refining basin models.
Smaller-scale projects, such as tie-backs and compact FPSOs, are highlighted as necessary for generating early revenues, sustaining local service providers, and supporting regulatory development.
Senegal’s Sangomar field and smaller Angolan tie-backs after 2018 are cited as examples.
The State of African Energy 2026 Outlook concludes that Africa’s oil and gas future will be shaped by multiple developments advancing simultaneously, supported by infrastructure, workforce development, and phased production strategies.
Source: African Energy Chamber, State of African Energy 2026 Outlook
