South Africa’s Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) exported 52.1 million tonnes in 2024—a 10 per cent year-on-year rise and the first annual increase in seven years—driven by improved rail logistics and robust demand from India, Pakistan, China and Turkey.
Namibia, by contrast, holds an estimated 350 million tonnes of coal—potentially worth over US$36 billion—yet none has ever been mined.
And while South Africa doubles down on exports, Namibia has turned its gaze to solar and green hydrogen, leaving its vast reserves buried beneath layers of sand, basalt, and policy inertia.
Multiple credible sources, including Namibia’s National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP), the International Energy Agency’s Clean Coal Centre, and The Global Economy, confirm that the country possesses between 350 and 385 million tonnes of high-quality coal, primarily located in the Aranos Basin.
These reserves remain undeveloped due to their depth, a lack of supporting infrastructure, and limited local demand.
The 2016 NIRP states that the Aranos Basin has been thoroughly investigated and contains approximately 350 million tonnes of in situ high-quality metallurgical coal at depths of up to 300 metres.
The 2023 report by TheGlobalEconomy.com put the figure even higher at 385.81 million tonnes.
The Geological Survey of Namibia (2013) further confirms the presence of coal in the Owambo, Huab, Waterberg, and Aranos basins.
Gecko Coal (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of Gecko Namibia, holds four Exclusive Prospecting Licences (EPLs) in the Aranos area, where seams are described as low in sulphur and average around two metres in thickness.
Beneath the sands of these basins lie thick seams of low-sulphur coal suitable for thermal and metallurgical use.
At current prices—approximately US$105 per tonne for thermal coal and over US$200 per tonne for metallurgical coal—the resource could theoretically be valued between US$35 billion and US$70 billion. However, these valuations remain speculative given Namibia’s infrastructure gaps and the depth of the deposits.
Exploration in the Aranos Basin dates back to the mid-1980s when the South West Africa administration drilled 36 shallow boreholes, revealing coal seams between 1.5 and 2.5 metres thick at depths ranging from 200 to 350 metres.
Although the coal was deemed suitable for multiple uses, its burial beneath dense Karoo sediments and basalt layers made extraction financially unattractive.
In the early 2000s, Gecko Coal revisited the area, confirming earlier findings through desktop studies, but refraining from deeper drilling due to access challenges, a lack of rail links, and the absence of local demand, resulting in the project being shelved.
In 2008, a joint venture between Aranos Gas Namibia, South African investors, and ASS Investments embarked on Namibia’s first coal-bed methane (CBM) exploration in Block 2419 of the Aranos Basin.
According to a report released by African Energy—a specialist publication tracking power, extractives, and infrastructure across Africa—the project confirmed the presence of methane. Still, yields were too low to support commercial production.
The venture was abandoned after drilling just one well.
According to World Coal, another coal-bed methane (CBM) initiative followed in 2012 in the Huab Basin, conducted by Australian-based Instinct Energy, which was among the first companies awarded a CBM licence in Namibia.
Instinct held permits covering over 11,000 square kilometres and proceeded with exploration drilling in the Huab area.
The company presented its findings at the Unconventional Gas Aberdeen 2012 conference. Results indicated minimal gas flow, which was insufficient for commercial extraction, ultimately leading to the project’s discontinuation.
Sintana Energy holds a carried interest in Licence PEL 103, which covers part of the Waterberg Basin in northeastern Namibia.
PEL 103 (Block 1918B) is an onshore petroleum and resource exploration licence encompassing a portion of the Waterberg coal-bearing sub-basin.
Although the Geological Survey of Namibia (GSN) has confirmed the presence of coal-bearing formations in the Waterberg through national mapping efforts, there is no public record of coal-specific drilling or exploration activities by Sintana or any other company under this licence.
The focus of PEL 103 remains on hydrocarbon exploration, rather than coal or coal-bed methane.
Despite geological interest in the Waterberg, Ovambo, and Toscanini sub-basins, no serious drilling has been undertaken in these regions.
This is primarily due to the depth and fragmentation of the coal seams, which limit the prospects for viable extraction.
These findings are documented in key reports by the Geological Survey of Namibia (GSN), including the “Coal Potential of Namibia” (2013) and “Hydrocarbon Prospectivity and Coal Resources of Namibia” (2007), both issued under the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
The reports highlight that although coal-bearing Karoo formations have been mapped across these basins, the structural complexity, combined with economic and logistical constraints, has discouraged exploration beyond preliminary geological assessments. Collaborative work between the GSN and international partners such as Germany’s Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) has further confirmed these limitations.
Namibia currently imports all its coal, including for its Van Eck power station near Windhoek (approx. 5,500 tonnes annually), while RBCT’s export success highlights how infrastructure can unlock resource potential. Namibia has chosen instead to invest in solar and green hydrogen.
Global pressure to decarbonise challenges coal’s appeal, although significant demand remains in markets like India.
Global coal demand reached a record 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024—a 1.5% increase—with demand rising in China, India, and Indonesia, while declining in the US, the EU, and Russia.
Between 2025 and 2027, demand is expected to plateau or slowly decline.
Thermal coal usage is levelling off, but metallurgical coal demand remains stable due to its role in the steel and cement industries.
Namibia’s coal assets remain stranded—buried beneath rock and institutional inertia.
The country’s reserves could, in theory, be worth tens of billions of US dollars.
However, at a time when the world is moving away from coal, Namibia has instead placed its faith in solar and green hydrogen projects that align with the global decarbonisation agenda.
Its coal seams, though real and well-documented, may remain untouched relics of a past energy era. While South Africa loads trains of coal for export through Richards Bay, Namibia is betting that the energy future will not be black but green.
