Oil exploration off Namibia’s shores has always been a high-stakes game, with each well representing tens — and sometimes hundreds — of millions of dollars in investment.
According to a compilation of public figures and industry cost models, international oil companies have sunk an estimated US$2.56–5.12 billion (N$46.08–92.16 billion) into the ocean in search of oil and gas since 1974.
A UK-based energy market intelligence and consultancy firm, Westwood Global Energy Group, estimated the late 2021 rates in Namibia’s deepwater contracts to be closer to US$200 000.
Both Westwood and Offshore Magazine later updated the figures to average about US$365 000 (N$6.57 million) per day, with recent fixtures hitting US$410 000 (N$7.38 million) per day since 2022.
glossary.slb.com says if one adds marine support, fuel, drilling fluids, helicopters, logistics, and third-party services, the total daily cost rises to US$700 000–900 000 (N$12.6–16.2 million).
Most ultra-deepwater exploration wells in the Orange Basin take between 55 and 90 days to drill. Rhino Resources, for example, has planned recent wells at around 55 days.
This means a single well can easily consume US$40–80 million in time-dependent costs before adding casing, tubulars, logging, testing, mobilisation, demobilisation, and insurance — elements that often lift the total into the US$80–150 million (N$1.44–2.7 billion) range, according to Africa Intelligence and Offshore Magazine.
Figures from the US Energy Information Administration suggest that around 60% of a well’s cost is in drilling — rig hire, consumables, and marine services — with less than 40% in completion and testing.
Many exploration wells are temporarily abandoned rather than fully completed, further concentrating spend in the drilling phase.
How many wells — and what cost
By October 2023, Namibia had recorded “more than 36” oil wells since 1974.
Since then, at least seven more have been drilled.. Galp’s Mopane-2X and Mopane-3X, spudded in November 2023 and January 2025; Rhino’s Sagittarius-1X, Capricornus-1X, and Volans-1X, spudded between December 2024 and July 2025; and two TotalEnergies prospects started in February 2025.
That brings the count to roughly 43 wells.
A Financial Times analysis in March 2024 noted that 17 pure exploration wells had been drilled since February 2022, with a high success rate.
Using those numbers, the cost history can be divided into three eras.
Between 1974 and 2021, approximately 19 wells were drilled for US$30–80 million each (N$540 million – N$1.44 billion), totalling US$0.57–1.52 billion (N$10.26–27.36 billion).
The estimated range of US$30–80 million per well is based on ECO Atlantic’s presentation of 4 October 2018.
According to industry cost data compiled from company disclosures, investor presentations, and mines ministry, the midpoint cost for offshore exploration between 1974 and 2021 is around US$0.95 billion (N$17.1 billion), based on 19 wells drilled at US$30–80 million each.
For the period between February 2022 and October 2023, public filings from operators such as TotalEnergies, Shell, and Galp indicate 17 wells drilled at an estimated US$80–150 million each (N$1.44–2.7 billion), totalling US$1.36–2.55 billion (N$24.48–45.9 billion), with a midpoint of US$1.96 billion (N$35.28 billion).
From November 2023 to August 2025, corporate reports and drilling cost benchmarks suggest about seven wells drilled at US$90–150 million each (N$1.62–2.7 billion), totalling US$0.63–1.05 billion (N$11.34–18.9 billion), with a midpoint of US$0.84 billion (N$15.12 billion).
The big picture
Across all eras, the total lands between US$2.56 billion (N$46.08 billion) and US$5.12 billion (N$92.16 billion), with the midpoint estimate of US$3.75 billion (N$67.5 billion) broadly consistent with Namibia’s rig-day economics since 2022 — US$365–410k/day, doubled for full spread, and multiplied by 55–90-day drilling campaigns.
As noted by Westwood, Offshore Magazine, and industry cost glossaries, these figures are susceptible to water depth, testing scope, sidetracks, weather delays, and the prevailing rig market.
For Namibia, however, the deeper the wells and the bigger the finds, the steeper the investment curve — and the higher the stakes.
Shell’s own experience in Namibia underscored that high-stakes nature. Since Shell did not publish a Namibia per-well spend, the only hard number the company has put on record is a write-off of about US$400 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, tied to its PEL 39 block where it drilled nine wells over the past three years.
Using those two Shell-anchored facts, it is possible to calculate an estimate based on its 45% stake. The impairment works out to roughly US$44.4 million per well (about N$800 million at N$18 to the US dollar) for Shell’s share.
If the write-off is proportional to equity, the implied gross cost for the joint venture would be about US$889 million in total.
Divided over nine wells, this equates to roughly US$99 million per well (about N$1.78 billion), a figure that aligns with Namibia’s typical ultra-deepwater well range of US$80–150 million.
